We are now checking. All the considerations, if not chatter, made so far are measured with reality. Tourism in the summer of 2020 will only experience national and local flows, but in the meantime, some countries, in addition to competitors from Italy, open protected corridors. Ryanair has resumed its flights since July, albeit initially with a significant cut, between 50% and 60%, effectively closing the door to travel at European level. Will all the scenarios designed be true? The villages, small settlements, walks, but in the end the desire for the beaches remains high, as has been seen in the last weekend. Did the theoretical reasoning deal with the man who is inside the consumer?
Only in the height of the season will we be able to have more precise information and data about what happens, the forecasts are subjective, for what has happened we have no historical data, nor even precise research. Beyond the evaluation of today, tourism must know how to interpret what will happen in the medium and long term, to design its strategies. Among other things, what will happen to air transport: a central element, a fundamental factor for the richer flows and for the arrivals from which it had invested, China in the lead. Layoffs, state aid, privatizations will bring some of the historic brands to life, from BA to Lufthansa. Others, like LATAM, have thrown in the towel.
Under what conditions will the air transport system resume? Cutting the less profitable routes, once managed only for market control, decommissioning of planes, especially larger ones, and, most likely, higher fares, after an initial period of price competition to get the market moving again. The business travel sector in great difficulty, after the discovery of video conferences. Physical spacing principles practically not applicable: only 2% of current carriers would survive with 77% of employment. But perhaps the high number of decommissioned aircraft available, still new for aviation parameters, will lead to unique opportunities, favoring the entry of new operators, with new product systems, into a market which, before five years, has not plans to return to the numbers in 2019.
On these elements we must take into account, analyzing the economic and social megatrends, in a range of possible future scenarios. Relying on a complex analysis system, monitoring what happens is fundamental, as well as scientifically correct.